New York’s low coronavirus transmission rate suggests the state’s outbreak is contained for now
- A key measure of New York’s coronavirus outbreak suggests the virus’ spread is contained.
- Each person with the coronavirus in New York is infecting fewer than one other person on average right now, but cases could spike again if social distancing measures are lifted too soon.
- For the state to reopen, the hospitalization rate must be in decline for 14 days, Gov. Cuomo said on Sunday.
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New York has a way to tell when its coronavirus outbreak has run its course.
When a population has immunity or social distancing measures are in place, epidemiologists look to a figure called the “effective reproduction number” (R), which represents the average number of people whom a single coronavirus patient is expected to infect.
The effective reproduction at a specific point in time, called the R(t), shows how fast the virus is currently spreading within a population. It offers a real-time guide for states looking to ease social distancing or stay-at-home restrictions.
New York’s R(t) is now 0.8, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said at a press briefing on Sunday. That means, right now, every person is infecting fewer than one other person on average. Taken on its own, this figure …continued .
[Source: Business Insider]