Coronavirus curve shows much of Europe could face Italy-like surge within weeks
Mathematical models developed by epidemiologists to track the virus show a sharp trajectory of infections in Spain, Germany, France and Britain. Spain, which declared a state of emergency on Friday, showed particularly concerning exponential growth, some experts said.
The modelers in Europe say a similar arc is likely in the United States, but anticipating the spread is made more difficult by the lack of widespread testing of suspected cases there. U.S. officials are working with 50 academic modeling groups across the country, The Washington Post reported, but no projections have been publicly released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the White House coronavirus task force.
“Italy is about two weeks ahead of Britain and the rest of Europe,” said Francois Balloux, director of the Genetics Institute at University College London.
Observations by epidemiologists show that if unchecked, the number of infections double approximately every five days, with infected individuals, on average, capable of passing the virus on to an average of about 2.5 people.
[Source: Washington Post]